Jev 缺乏内置概率校准功能,需额外标注数据进行校准
问题概述
用户希望从 Jev 获得 calibrated probabilities,但该模型默认不提供校准输出;要实现约 80% 的可靠性需要自行收集数百个标注样本并进行 Platt scaling;此外,模型的评分难以匹配业务特定的评分标准,导致置信度难以保证。
痛点标签
- 缺乏内置概率校准功能,需要自行标注数据进行校准
- 模型评分难以对齐业务 rubric,导致置信度难以保证
- 对单个预测的置信度输出不准确,难以满足实际业务需求
待验证问题
- 是否有意愿提供标注数据以进行校准?
- 当前模型的评分能否满足贵公司特定的评分标准?
- 对单个预测的置信度输出是否满足业务需求?
证据
原话
I tested Jev with a fair die 400 times without telling it the die result. The true probability of face 1 is 1/6, but Jev always chose face 1 and the probability it returned was about 83%. I also tested with a fair coin 200 times and got 0.92 probability. I did several tests and I think Jev is good at problems with a correct answer but weak at problems about actual probabilities whose answers can't be known at all.
原话
I like this post. I haven't had time to dig into Jev (they aren't accepting new signups), but calibrated probabilities is one of their pitches that caught my attention. And I was wondering how does one offer them on user data. Standard calibration essentially ensures that if a score of 0.8 accompanies a positive prediction (assuming the simple case of binary classification), then if you gathered together all predictions with a score of 0.8, around 80% will be correct. If you have just one example you're sending to a model, how would they guarantee 80% over your data?
原话
Article says that it _can_ be calibrated, it just isn't out of the box. So the title seems contradicted by the body.> If you want calibrated probabilities you’ll still need to recalibrate Jev’s probabilities on your own data. The good news is that is cheap. A few hundred labeled examples from your actual data can be enough to fit a Platt scaling on top of Jev’s scores.
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